When misery fades, the dollar rallies.
That’s the contention of Deutsche Bank AG, the world’s second-biggest currency trader, which expects the greenback to resume its surge this year after slumping in February. The misery index, a measure of inflation and unemployment, fell in November to the lowest in almost six decades, underpinning the currency’s outlook. The jobless rate is forecast to hold at an eight-year low Friday as the Federal Reserve weighs the path of U.S. interest rates.
“The misery index is not miserable,” said Alan Ruskin, the bank’s global co-head of foreign-exchange research in New York. “The tighter the labor market is, the more likely that we’re in a cycle where the Fed is going to be supportive of the dollar.”
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major peers, dropped 1.8% in February on concern that a global economic slowdown will drag…