“Prosperity is like a Jenga tower. Take one piece out and the whole thing can fall.”
That’s a direct quote from John Williams, the President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank in a speech he gave a few weeks ago.
He could have just as easily been talking about propaganda. The Fed, the White House, Wall Street, the media have a vested interest in peddling a certain narrative about the economy.
The narrative goes something like this: “Everything’s awesome. Stop asking questions”.
But if you look at their own data, the numbers tell a different story.
My team and I were recently studying US manufacturing indices, something that has traditionally been a strong indicator of recession.
This is data collected by the Federal Reserve; they survey manufacturing businesses and ask if factory orders are growing, shrinking, or relatively unchanged.
You’d think that based on this “everything is…