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Property market is in turmoil, reminiscent of 2008’s U.S. housing crash. While this could indicate a looming financial crisis, Beijing’s strong hold on the financial system might prevent a complete meltdown. Banks are likely to suffer significant balance sheet damage, impacting their future growth support. Although property underpins a quarter of China’s economy, both mainstream and shadow banks have reduced property exposure, with loans to property sectors dropping from 30% in 2019 to 23% in 2023. The real concern is the housing market’s tie to heavy industry and local governments. Despite the resilience of heavy industries, local governments, especially those relying heavily on land sales, face financial strain. Local government debt in 2022 was estimated at 75% of GDP. While China’s larger banks seem stable, smaller, especially rural banks, are at risk. Still, the intertwined nature of property, land finances, and local governments makes isolated bailouts challenging. Steps are underway to support the property sector, and while China may evade a full-blown financial crisis in 2023-2024, banks’ balance sheets will undoubtedly suffer, potentially slowing growth. #China #PropertyMarket #FinancialCrisis

Timestamps:
Where’s the Weakest Link? 0:33
China and Canada Debt 7:05
What Can I Do? 9:28

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