From Jim Rickards, Editor, Currency Wars Alert:

I put the odds that we’re already in the early stages of a recession at about 76%. All the signs from the U.S. economy are negative.

The current behavior in the stock market is exactly what I’ve expected to see at the beginning of a recession, too. Stock markets are leading indicators of recession. They typically go down about six months before recessions begin.

Mainstream economists are late to realize this. A year from now they’ll say “January or early February 2016 is when the recession started.” At that point, it won’t be useful information. But you can see around the corner if you’re looking at the right information.

There’s been no real wage growth for example. Other leading indicators such as declining world trade, declining manufacturing, inventory-to-sales ratios and auto sales also suggest that we’re heading into a recession.

Deflationary forces are…