Home Capital’s Swoon Has Former Investor Mulling Contagion Odds

The escalation of Home Capital Group Inc.’s distress last week has led one of its largest former investors to rethink — if only slightly — the prospects of troubles spreading through the rest of Canada.

After the alternative-mortgage lender set up a C$2 billion ($1.5 billion) credit line to offset a run on deposits, Mawer Investment Management Ltd.’s Jim Hall is recalculating the odds of a contagion widening across one of the world’s strongest financial systems.

“The probability has gone from infinitesimal to possible — unlikely, but possible,” said Hall, chief investment officer of the Calgary-based money manager, in an interview Saturday. “If depositors or bondholders start to lose faith in their banks, well then that becomes systemic.”

Mawer, which oversees more than C$40 billion in assets, sold about 2.8 million shares, or a 4.3 percent stake, in Home Capital in the past week, joining another Calgary-based money manager, QV Investors

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