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In terms of Michael Burry’s overall thoughts…he did make an interesting point that, throughout a bear market, we’re likely to see quite a few rallies along the way.
“Bounces are the most epic. 12 of the top 20 NASDAQ 1-day rallies happened during the 78% drop from the 200’s top. 9 of the top 20 SP500 1-day rallies happened during the 86% drop from the 1929 top.”
He also goes on to say that ‘The DOW had 10 bear market rallies of MORE THAN 10%…before bottoming down 89% in 2919…”…suggesting that, it’ll take some time before we reach the TRUE BOTTOM…
Morgan Stanley also tends to agree, saying that: “Generally speaking, we do not see bear markets bottom without panic selling, similar to what was seen in 2001 and 2020…Historically speaking, no bear market has ever bottomed without a VIX reading of 45 or more.”
Although, in terms of reaching a bottom…the WallStreetJournal gave a slightly DIFFERENT variation… saying that, since 1950…”the S&P 500 has sold off at least 15% on 17 occasions….On 11 of those 17 occasions, the stock market managed to bottom out only around the time the Fed shifted toward loosening monetary policy again.”
In this case, JP Morgan believes that “The Fed’s moves “raise the risk of a recession starting this year or early next year… and raises the risk frankly that they’re not going to be able to keep raising rates that long,”…meaning, if inflation comes down, AND our economy starts to fall…there’s a chance they can ease, or even REDUCE RATES…and, when..or, IF that happens..the market might start to recover.
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