Are Retail Sales Signaling Next Recession?

Retail sales estimates are not adjusted for inflation, but even so whenever they get down toward the 3% growth level you can be sure there is serious economic trouble.

The six-month average for overall retail sales dropped below 3% in March 2001, the month that marked the start of the official dot-com recession (though that is not the official name for the cyclical peak, it probably should be).

They would remain near or just less than 3% all the way until early 2003, the whole of the “jobless recovery” that convinced Federal Reserve officials more “stimulus” had been warranted even though the official end of the dot-com recession was November 2001.

In April 2007, retail sales growth, on average, fell to nearly 3% and would remain close to that mark while things began to steadily fall apart. They would rise in early 2008 as oil prices skyrocketed on misreading money,



Leave a Reply

Recent Posts

Trump Supporters: Get Your 2020 'Keep America Great' Shirts Now!

Are you a proud supporter of President Donald Trump?

If so, you’ll want to grab your 2020 re-election shirt now and be the first on your block to show your support for Trump 2020!

These shirts are going fast so click here to check for availability in your area!


More Popular Stuff for Trump Supporters!

MUST SEE: Full Color Trump Presidential Coin (limited!)

Hilarious Pro Trump 'You are Fake News' Tee Shirt!

[Exclusive] Get Your HUGE Trump 2020 Yard or House Flag!